Primena matematičkog modelovanja u ekologiji

Abstract

Cilj rada je primena matematičkog modeliranja u ekološkim istraživanjima na primeru rasprostranjenosti odonanata u Srbiji. Za potrebe istraživanja odabrano je šest područja za koja je dat broj vrsta odonanata, zatim je izračunat koeficijent sličnosti a na osnovu podataka o broju vrsta i činilaca spoljašnje sredine (nadmorska visina, temperatura i padavine), dok je modelom višestruke linearne regresije (MLR ) predstavljen broj vrsta odonanata vrsta u zavisnosti od nadmorske visine, temperature i padavina. Proučavana područja bili su rečni tokovi Tise, Sava-Dunav, Velike Morave, Južne Morave, kao i planinska područja Zlatibora i Golije. Broj vrsta bio je najveći na mestu Sava-Dunav, a zatim na području Tise. Pojava odonata bila je najmanja na području mesta Golije. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da su promenljivi činioci životne sredine značajno povezani sa distribucijom odonata. Model MLR zasnovan na zavisnostima od visine, temperature i padavina pokazao je izuzetno visok stepen slaganja.

The aim of this paper was implementation of mathematical modeling in ecological research on the example of the prevalence of odonates in Serbia. For research purposes six areas were selected for which the number of species of odonants was given, a similarity coefficient was calculated, and based on the data as the number of species and environmental variables of the place (altitude, temperature and precipitation), multiple linear regression (MLR) model was presented describing the number of species odonants depending on altitude, temperature and precipitation. The areas studied were the rivers Tisa, Sava-Danube, Velika Morava, Južna Morava, as well as the mountain areas Zlatibor and Golija. The occurrence of the species was highest at the Sava-Danube site, followed by the Tisa. Odonates occurrence was lowest in the Golija site. The results of the study showed that environmental variables are significantly associated with odonates distribution. The MLR model based on the species dependence of altitude, temperature, and precipitation showed an extremely high degree of agreement.